4K TV made a huge splash at this year's Consumer Electronics Show, with nearly every major TV manufacturer announcing a 4K display for imminent release. The new format offers outstanding picture quality, at four times the pixel density of standard HD.
But after the excitement of the conference subsided, analysts rushed to throw cold water on 4K, pointing out that the TV industry and electronics consumers were both slow to adopt standard high definition. They were bearish about the prospects for fast 4K adoption.
In a new report from BI Intelligence, we forecast that 4K — also known as 4K Ultra HD — will roll out much faster than most industry analysts are predicting. Two factors will speed up the rollout: the price of 4K-capable TVs and the fast availability of 4K content on Internet video services.
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Here are some of the key trends we explore in the report:
- 4K-capable TVs will be in 10% of all North American households by year-end 2018. We forecast that this number will reach 50% by the end of 2024, just 10 years from now.
- Prices for 4K TVs are falling fast, dropping by 85% worldwide in just two years. We compare prices across regions (China has the most accessible price points), and examine how falling prices will fuel rapid 4K adoption.
- The first wave of 4K content will become available on streaming services like Netflix, Amazon Instant, and YouTube. But we also look at how cable and traditional TV broadcasters will adopt the new format, and the obstacles they face.
- Shipments of 4K-capable TVs will reach 11 million units worldwide by the end of 2016, with China accounting for the largest share of these shipments. We look at why 4K adoption has been so rapid in China.
- We also look at manufacturers' market share for 4K TV shipments, a market heavily dominated by low-cost Chinese manufacturers.
In full, the report:
- Explains the difference between 4K and traditional HD.
- Forecasts the pace of 4K adoption.
- Outlines the key factors that will allow 4K to roll out much faster than standard high definition.
- Highlights what 4K content is currently available, and where future content will come from.
- Analyzes China’s role in the spread of 4K.
- Examines the current market share for 4K TV manufacturers.
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