Just two years ago, Ian Bremmer, the head of Eurasia Group, said political risk in the developed world was "overstated."
Today, things are a bit different.
"Geopolitics is back,"Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan write in Eurasia Group's annual list of the top risks. "As 2015 begins, political conflict among the world's great powers is in play more than at any time since the end of the Cold War."
Russia, China, the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL), and the emerging markets are major risks in the coming year, but the biggest one is Europe because of increased political instability, according to Bremmer and Kupchan.
We've put together Bremmer and Kupchan's top 10 risks for 2015, along with key explanations and — bonus — a list of red herrings.
1. The politics of Europe
"Anxiety is again on the rise over Europe's economics, but there is no sense of crisis to force political leaders to work together," Bremmer writes.
Additionally, anti-EU political parties are becoming more popular, while some governments are increasingly growing to resent Germany's dominant influence.
On top of all that, "Russia and ISIS will add to Europe's security worries," Bremmer writes.
Source: Eurasia Group
2. Russia
Although sanctions and lower oil prices have hurt Russia, they haven't pushed Russian President Vladimir Putin to change course in Ukraine.
As Russia's economy worsens, Putin's popularity will depend on his willingness to confront the West — which makes Western companies and investors "likely targets — on the ground and in cyberspace," Bremmer says.
Source: Eurasia Group
3. The effects of China slowdown
China's President Xi Jinping is shifting the country into a consumer-driven economy, which requires a shift toward lower levels of growth.
The continuing slowdown will most likely "have little impact inside the country," Bremmer writes, but "that's cold comfort for the expanding list of economics that depend on booming trade with a commodity-hungry China."
Source: Eurasia Group
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