Bill and Melinda Gates are making some big bets for the next 15 years.

The Microsoft co-founder-turned-philanthropist and his wife have published their annual letter in which they spell out where they think (and hope) the world will be by 2030. 

This idea of a "bet" is inspired by Gates' long-time friendship with Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. Forty years ago, the two of them bet that personal computers would transform the way people worked and played around the world.

"This bet wasn't exactly a wager," the letter says. "It was an opportunity to make computers personal and empower people through the magic of software. Some people thought they were nuts. But the bet turned out well."

Fifteen years ago, another bet was made. They predicted they could dramatically reduce inequality "by backing innovative work in health and education." The letter states: "The progress we've seen so far is very exciting — so exciting that we are doubling down on the bet we made 15 years ago, and picking ambitious goals for what's possible 15 years from now."

This year, the couple is making one big bet: that "the lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the next 15 years than at any other time in history. And their lives will improve more than anyone else's."

Here are four other predictions from the letter:

Child deaths will go down, and more diseases will be wiped out. The Gates' want to cut the number of children who die before the age of 5 in half. In 1990, it was one in 10, and today it's 1 in 20. By 2030, they want it be just one in 40. Another goal is reducing the number of women who die in childbirth by two-thirds. 

They also hope to eliminate polio and three other diseases. They hope to "find the secret to the destruction of Malaria"— although they concede it may not be eliminated by then. And HIV should be forced to the "tipping point."

Africa will be able to feed itself. Africa currently imports $50 billion of food on an annual basis. By improving yields and introducing innovations in farming, they hope to achieve food security for the continent by 2030. 

Mobile banking will help the poor transform their lives. Millions of Africans don't have access to established banking services. Cell phones are key to changing this. Within 15 years, 2 billion people without bank accounts today will be storing money nad making payments using their mobiles, they predict. "And by then, mobile money providers will be offering the full range of financial services, from interest-bearing savings accounts to credit to insurance."

Better software will revolutionise learning. "Education is a great leveller," they say, but there's numerous barriers holding efforts back. As global digital penetration improves, online software solutions will make education programs more effective than ever before.

The couple conclude their annual letter by urging people to sign up to the "Global Citizen" initiative. "The more global citizens there are, and the more active and effective they are, the more progress the world will make," they write. "We hope you will show your support by signing up, because we believe that people can and must work together more to make the world a more equitable place. In fact, we’re betting on it."

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Montreal (AFP) - Royal Bank of Canada announced Thursday that it will purchase US financial group City National Corporation, which serves high net worth and commercial clients, for $5.4 billion.

As part of the merger agreement, RBC will pay about $47.25 in cash and 0.7489 of an RBC common share for each share of City National common stock, the bank said in a statement.

The total payment will be made out as $2.7 billion in cash and approximately 44 million RBC common shares.

RBC already has a strong presence in the United States, where it employs 8,000 people, including more than 3,000 in New York.

"We're very enthused about merging with RBC," said City National chairman and CEO Russell Goldsmith.

RBC's chief executive Dave McKay said that: "In line with RBC's strategic goals, we believe this combination creates a powerful expansion platform for focused long-term growth in the country which we view as our second home market."

The deal is set to close in the fourth quarter of the year subject to regulatory approvals and the approval of City National's common stockholders.

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Yangon (AFP) - Myanmar Thursday said it would look into incendiary comments by the country's most notorious hardline monk who branded a UN envoy a "whore" after strong condemnation from the United Nation's, but indicated it was unlikely to act against the cleric.

Influential cleric Wirathu rained insults on United Nations Special Rapporteur on Myanmar Yanghee Lee in a firebrand speech to cheering supporters, calling her a "whore in our country" for criticising controversial draft bills considered discriminatory to women and minorities.

The UN's human rights chief said the comments, which come amid rising Buddhist nationalism in diverse but conflict-prone Myanmar, were "intolerable", in a strongly-worded statement to the former junta-run nation.

"The sexist, insulting language used against the UN's independent human rights expert on Myanmar... is utterly unacceptable," UN human rights chief Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein said in a statement issued Wednesday.

He called on religious and political leaders in the country "to unequivocally condemn all forms of incitement to hatred, including this abhorrent public personal attack against a UN-appointed expert".

Myanmar president's office spokesman Zaw Htay said the religious affairs ministry had been asked to look into the "rude and harsh" comments, but he indicated the government was unlikely to take action against the monk. 

"We have not received any official complaint yet. And since it is a monk issue, we can't deal it with directly," he told AFP.

The Buddhist clergy have traditionally been viewed with reverence in Myanmar. The monks were at the forefront of democracy protests in 2007, known as the Saffron Revolution, that were crushed in a bloody crackdown by the former junta.

But the country, which began emerging from outright military rule in 2011, has seen a surge in religious tensions in recent years, with spates of violence targeting Muslim minorities that have raised doubts over its much vaunted reforms after decades of harsh military rule.

- Unapologetic -

Wirathu, who has become the country's most recognised Buddhist hardliner, was unapologetic about his remarks when contacted by AFP this week, despite a flurry of criticism over his language on social media. 

"If I could find a harsher word, I would have used it. It is nothing compared to what she did to our country," he told AFP on Tuesday.

The monk's speech came after Lee said controversial draft legislation -- including curbs on interfaith marriage, religious conversion and birth rates -- would be a further sign that Myanmar was "backtracking" in its democratic reforms if passed by parliament.

Activists say the laws are particularly discriminatory against women and religious minorities in the Buddhist majority country.

High-level government support for the bills has raised fears over growing politicisation of religion in the nation as it heads towards crunch elections later this year that are seen as a key test of its emergence from outright military rule.

On Friday, top American diplomat Tom Malinowski warned that Myanmar was warned the use of faith for political ends was "playing with fire".

Religious violence has spread across Myanmar since 2012, when unrest between Rohingya Muslims and Buddhists ignited Rakhine state.

The Buddhist-majority country has large minority religious groups, particularly Muslims and Christians. 

Lee, who was also accused by protesting monks of bias towards the Rohingya, warned on Friday that acute tensions between Muslims and Buddhists in Rakhine could have "far-reaching implications".

In his statement Zeid said it was Lee's job to address "key human rights issues and the situation of minorities in the country, particularly the Rohingya Muslim community".

"Instead of attacking Ms. Lee personally, I invite community, religious and political leaders in Myanmar to tackle the substance of her concerns," Zeid said.

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The Swiss National Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Danish National Bank, Bank of Canada, ECB and Federal Reserve have all recently made decisions which contributed to increased market turmoil.

Volatility is on the increase in 2015 and the source of this uptick is central banks, guardians of the global financial system and previous dampeners of global market volatility.

This central bank induced volatility is the theme of an excellent piece of research from Deutsche Bank’s Analyst Aleksandar Kocic, “Volatility – the finger and the stick.”

Kocic likens the post GFC era, when central banks have thrown cash at the market and the economy in an effort to dampen downside volatility, to the act of balancing a stick on your finger.

Imagine you are asked to balance a long stick on your finger. By placing it vertically on your fingertip, the stick could fall either left or right from its initial position because standing upright is unstable. However, in trying to keep the stick vertical you instinctively (and randomly) wiggle your finger. The added randomness – “noise” – acts as a stabiliser of an otherwise unstable equilibrium.1 So long as the noise is administered carefully, the stick remains vertical, or “metastable”. The withdrawal of noise becomes destabilising.

It’s an apt analogy, you should try it.

The stick of course is the national and global economies and the finger is monetary policy and quantitative easing.

But you can’t balance the stick forever – indeed you don’t want to – just ask the SNB or the Fed.

The paradox of the current post crisis world Kocic says is that, “good economic news is now the most feared risk. No one wants any randomness to return, they prefer the stick to be still.”

As a result, “central banks are caught,” and the huge liquidity injections which moved risk from private to public balance sheets has dampened volatility to the point that:

Rock bottom interest rates and low volatility across the board was a high degree of correlation between different market sectors, with central bank flows and the distortions those introduced also contributing. Many markets became an extension of monetary policy. This in turn crowded out private investors, their participation now a function of liquidity injected.

The problem Kocic asserts is that, “risk does not disappear. It can only be transferred or postponed by temporarily suspending.” The exit is key and “explains the tense dialogue between markets and central banks the moment the conditions show any sign of improvement.”

Scarily while Kocic says the first part of the exit, the unwinding of correlations, started with the taper tantrum and taper talk in mid-2013 he says that, “return of volatility, is yet to really take off, not withstanding recent jitters around Russia and oil prices.”

That’s scary and traders are already getting a sense that 2015 is going to look very different to the last year or two in markets.

But central banks, like the Fed, are struggling to get markets back to normal function and Kocic says, “Mostly each attempt by the Fed to inject volatility back into the market has met with rejection. Goodness knows how central banks are going to move to act three and actually raise rates.”

Dampening volatility was part of the global market recovery process in the wake of the GFC but returning it to the market is going to make 2015 a very interesting year.

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Russia and North Korea keep getting closer.

The two nations will set up a bilateral business council, which will "improve the interaction of North Korean and Russian business communities," the vice president of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Vladimir Strashko said at a conference chaired by the head of Russia's Ministry for the Development of the Far East, according to RIA Novosti.

They "will create the Business Council for the most comfortable collaboration and cooperation of the North Korean and Russian business communities as early as next week," Strashko said.

North Korea and Russia reportedly "achieved results in extremely complicated bilateral issues": North Korea has begun to issue multi-entry visas to Russian citizens, the first round of ruble settlements have been done, and negotiations are underway on the North Korean government's formation of a special body to supervise joint projects with Russia, according to RIA Novosti.

The big takeaway here is that Russia and North Korea are increasingly strengthening their relationship.

Last week, Russia's Ministry for the Development of the Far East announced that Russian businesses doing trade through North Korea's Foreign Trade Bank could make payments in rubles. And before that back in October, the ministry announced that Russia was looking to expand economic changes with the hermit nation.

And even before all of this, the two countries already had a rather unique relationship: North Korea outsources its labor force to work in Siberia in an effort to generate hard currency, and the country's military uses Soviet-era goods (for example: the hermit nation's submarine fleet consists of "largely obsolete Soviet-era" vessels.) The two countries are also boosting military ties.

Basically, the new "bilateral business council" venture is another step in North Korea and Russia's quiet, strategic diversification away from the West.

SEE ALSO: North Korea And Russia's Are Undermining America's 'Weaponization Of Finance' Plan

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According to Apple analyst Gene Munster, these are the company's top-5 priorities in order of importance:

1. iPhone
2. iOS
3. Apple Watch
4. Mac
5. Emerging

What's missing? The iPad. 

"We believe that at this point, the iPad is largely just an offshoot of iPhone in that the iPad does not have any significantly unique features that iPhone does not other than a larger screen," said Munster in a note for clients. "While this may seem a negative view on iPad, it is not meant as such and more of a commentary on the power of the iPhone and iOS that it extends to create a sub-segment that is ~13% of Apple’s core business."

So, why does he think those other categories are important?

• The iPhone, because, duh, Apple is the iPhone company. Apple's stock swings higher or lower depending on iPhone sales. 
• iOS, because according to Munster, it is "the future of the company." iOS is the operating system that powers the iPhone, the iPad, the Apple TV, and the Apple Watch. It is at the core of Apple's biggest new products. It also is the base for future expansion into home automation and health. Moreso than hardware design, iOS is what's separates the iPhone from an Android phone.
• The Apple Watch is Apple's first new product category since the iPad, and it's Apple's first stab at wearable computing. Munster also thinks it could be massive down the road: "Today the Watch is an accessory for the iPhone, but we believe core features like calls, voice control, messaging, etc. could be controlled via a Watch, implant, light field technology or other evolving technology, leaving the smartphone as we know it irrelevant. Therefore we believe that Apple’s foray into wearables via the Apple Watch may be more important in them figuring out how wearables will change the smartphone market than it is as an individual business line in the next couple of years."
• The Mac is a bigger part of Apple's business than the iPad, and it's growing. Munster thinks Apple can be a little more creative with the Mac as opposed to the iPad. The iPad is just a bigger iPhone, whereas the Mac is its own product. 
• Emerging products are things that haven't even been rumored yet. Munster, because he's Munster, thinks Apple will eventually do something in television. "Fundamentally, we believe that Apple looks for areas in which they can deliver great experiences by marrying hardware and software. We believe television is the most obvious and most significant remaining market opportunity." But, if not television, then it has to be something else. Apple is always looking for the next major opportunity.

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London (AFP) - Pop singer Rihanna on Thursday won her legal battle with British high street giant Topshop after it sold a T-shirt bearing her image without first requesting permission.

Three judges at London's Appeal Court upheld a ban on selling the garment after ruling that the clothing retailer had been "passing off" -- using a personal image for marketing purposes without authorisation.

Rihanna had reportedly sued for $5 million (4.3 million euros), although that figure was not mentioned in the written judgement.

The 26-year-old Barbadian singer, who has sold over 150 million albums worldwide, had sued Topshop's parent company Arcadia for the sleeveless T-shirt featuring a picture taken during the filming of a 2011 video.

In 2013, High Court judge Colin Birss found in Rihanna's favour, concluding that some people would buy the item on the "false belief" that she had approved it.

Topshop appealed, with lawyer Geoffrey Hobbs arguing that the item was a "decorated T-shirt" similar to those featuring images of stars such as Elvis Presley, Jimi Hendrix and Prince.

He also argued that it was wrong to assume "only a celebrity may ever market his or her own character".

All three Appeal Court judges dismissed the appeal, but experts explained that the ruling would not necessarily open the floodgates to similar claims.

"The court was very keen to stress that there were specific facts that made Rihanna's case stronger than usual," copyright lawyer Paul Joseph told the BBC.

These included photographs being spread on social media showing the singer wearing Topshop clothes, suggesting there was an official collaboration.

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Melbourne (AFP) - Serena Williams was slow to get going before finding her groove to bulldoze into the Australian Open third round Thursday, joining rampant fellow world number one Novak Djokovic and comeback queen Victoria Azarenka.

With the temperatures again sizzling around 33 Celsius (93 Fahrenheit) at Melbourne Park, the American 18-time Grand Slam champion took time to adjust to the sauna-like conditions against Russian veteran Vera Zvonareva.

She had to save two set points before exploding into action in the second set to easily win 7-5, 6-0 and keep alive her dream of a sixth Australian title.

Djokovic, gunning to be crowned champion a fifth time, was on fire in his showdown against Andrey Kuznetsov, crushing the hapless Russian 6-0, 6-1, 6-4, while defending champion Stan Wawrinka had to work hard to get past Marius Copil.

The Romanian took the fourth seed to two tiebreakers before the Swiss star triumphed 7-6 (7/4), 7-6 (7/4), 6-3. Japan's Kei Nishikori also went through.

In a blockbuster evening clash, two-time champion Azarenka crushed close friend and eighth seed Caroline Wozniacki 6-4, 6-2 as her comeback from injury gathers steam.

Williams said she only started finding her range when she relaxed.

"She started out really well, she was really aggressive and I was a little too passive," said Williams, the top seed.

"Once I got down I thought 'Serena, you've done so well here you've got nothing to lose, just have fun and enjoy yourself' -- then I started to play a lot better."

While the old guard of Williams and Maria Sharapova are safely into the third round, the new generation of Eugenie Bouchard and Simona Halep have looked more impressive in the early rounds.

Sixth seed Agnieszka Radwanska is also in ominous form after hiring former great Martina Navratilova as her coach.

The Pole, a semi-finalist last year, took just 44 minutes to brush aside Sweden's Johanna Larsson 6-0, 6-1 and has only lost four games in two matches.

"She's helped me a lot, on and off the court," Radwanska said of Navratilova. 

Williams faces a tricky third round match against another of the new young guns in Spanish world number 24 Garbine Muguruza, who beat Daniela Hantuchova 6-1, 0-6, 6-1.

Her sister Venus also progressed, as did Czech fourth seed Petra Kvitova.

- The perfect game -

Men's top seed Djokovic came out of the blocks firing against Kuznetsov, who had no answer to his booming serve and powerful groundstrokes in a masterclass performance.

"Overall I executed the game plan," said the Serb. 

"Everything I intended to do, almost 100 percent, from every second in my game, serve, baseline play, aggressive shots and aggressive returns."

In contrast Wawrinka, who beat Rafael Nadal in last year's final, was put through his paces by Copil and was glad to get off court after three sets.

"The court was quite fast and he was really aggressive on serve and I was happy to get through in three sets," said Wawrinka.

Fifth seed Nishikori was forced to four sets by Croatia's Ivan Dodig, digging deep to keep his dream of a maiden major title alive with a 4-6, 7-5, 6-2, 7-6 (7/0) win in front of a noisy pro-Japanese crowd.

"It was very warm conditions today and he was playing really well, very aggressive, good returns and it was a tough battle," Nishikori said.

Others through included Canadian eighth seed Milos Raonic, Spain's ninth seed David Ferrer and 12th seeded compatriot Feliciano Lopez.

Azarenka, ranked just 44 after an injury-marred 2014, again showed why she is the most dangerous unseeded player at this year's tournament after upsetting Wozniacki.

"She had such an incredible end of last season so I knew I had to step up my game and really take my chances today," said Azarenka, who won the title in 2012 and 2013.

"I think I did that pretty well."

The win keeps her on track to meet Serena Williams in the quarter-finals.

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The powerful speaker of the New York State Assembly has been taken into federal custody for alleged corruption, The New York Times reported Thursday.

"I hope I'll be vindicated," the speaker, Sheldon Silver, said as he walked into a federal building in downtown Manhattan.

The news is all but certain to send Albany into chaos as the state's leaders decide how to handle their politically toxic colleague.

According to the Times report, the still-unknown charges appear to be linked to undisclosed income he received from a real-estate law firm. Silver failed to list his "substantial" income from the firm, Goldberg & Iryami, as required, sources told The Times. 

Additionally, Silver reported between $650,000 and $750,000 in outside income from a personal-injury law practice, but he has never detailed publicly what he does for the money. US Attorney Preet Bharara reportedly subpoenaed documents from the firm several months ago. Silver has long been criticized for killing tort reform attempts, despite his apparent conflict of interest.

"State ethics laws do not require him to provide any details about what he does, who his clients are, or even if he has any clients at all. Public records contain no indication that he has ever appeared on behalf of clients in state or federal court," The Times reported in December.

Silver, a Manhattan Democrat, has been a fixture in Albany politics for decades and has held his current office since 1994. The quintessential backroom negotiator and one of Albany's so-called "three men in a room," Silver was one of the most powerful people in Albany.

Silver maintained this power even as he became mired in controversies. He was accused of shielding a powerful colleague who was accused of shocking incidents of sexual harassment. A top aide mishandled another serious sexual-harassment allegation. His chief of staff's husband was arrested for an embezzlement scheme and reportedly had hundreds of thousands of dollars stashed in their home.

But still, because of Silver's influence, almost no New York Democrats have been willing to criticize him over the years, let alone call for his ouster as speaker as many editorial boards have done. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) has showered Silver in praise and the embattled speaker reportedly had a prominent seat next to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) for his State of the State speech on Wednesday. Silver was easily re-elected to his leadership position in January.

Silver's office did not immediately return a request for comment from Business Insider. Bharara scheduled a press conference to announce the charges for 1 p.m. Eastern.

NOW WATCH: How To Make Your Own Custom Charts In Excel

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Technology giant Samsung is still in talks to acquire BlackBerry, a new report in the Financial Post has claimed, days after both companies denied that acquisition discussions were underway.

The new report, published on Wednesday, claims that Samsung is still pursuing a deal to buy BlackBerry. The Financial Post spoke to someone familiar with the acquisition talks. "Samsung is still evaluating their options," the source said. "So it’s still very much an open deal."

Both BlackBerry and Samsung issued denials that they were in talks. But the new report claims that discussions are still underway.

The first report of a deal between BlackBerry and Samsung came on January 14. A Reuters article claimed that Samsung was looking to purchase BlackBerry for as much as $7.5 billion, mainly for its patent portfolio. A source close to the rumoured talks told Reuters that meetings had taken place.

The stock market loved the news that BlackBerry could be acquired by Samsung. The company's share price shot up 29% on the news. But it wasn't for long. BlackBerry quickly issued a denial, claiming that it had not talked with Samung about an acquisition. That news didn't go down quite as well, and BlackBerry's stock price was down 15% on after-hours trading.

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Initial jobless claims fell to 307,000 last week from a revised level of 317,000 the prior week. 

This was higher than expected, however.

Expectations were for claims to total 300,000, down from last week's 316,000. Last week's report showed an unexpected increase in claims, as last claims topped 300,000 for just the second time since September.

The four week moving average of claims also ticked higher, to 306,5000, and the Department of Labor said in its release there were no special factors impacting claims.

Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said in a note following the report that seasonal adjustments are likely still impacting the number and said the trend is likely near 290,000.

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Futures are surging and the euro is tanking after the European Central Bank announced a quantitative easing program.

Near 9:00 am ET, Dow futures were up 125 points, S&P 500 futures were up 5 points, and Nasdaq futures were up 7 points.

The big mover, however, was the euro, which fell below 1.15 against the US dollar following the ECB's announcement. 

On Thursday, the ECB said it would buy €60 billion of bonds each month through at least the end of 2016.

The ECB's program is not as straightforward as QE undertaken in the US and contains some conditions on how much debt from each eurozone member the ECB can buy, with the ECB not buying more than 25% of new debt issued by any country and not more than 33% of that country's outstanding debt.

We have live coverage of ECB president Mario Draghi's press conference here, and this post will updated as markets change on ECB headlines.

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The ECB has held rates steady in its latest monetary policy announcement. But all eyes are on the press conference that is live right now.

Pretty much everyone is now expecting some sort of big stimulus package.

Here's what they've said so far, and Draghi's full statement:

• Draghi just announced "expanded asset purchases" - quantitative easing (QE).
• They're doing €60 billion of asset purchases per month: That combines the purchases of covered bonds and asset-backed securities they were already doing with investment-grade government debt. This is more than people expected.
  
• Greek debt isn't investment-grade, but the statement says there's "some additional eligibility criteria" for countries currently in bailout programmes, so Greece's bonds may still be eligible for the new scheme. 
• Purchases will run until the end of September 2016. 
• 12% of the new purchases will be subject to "loss-sharing" - the ECB itself will hold another 8% of the bonds, so a fifth of the risk will be shared in total. But that means most of the default risk will be held by national central banks.
• The ECB won't buy more than 25% of the new debt any country is issuing, and not more than 33% of its outstanding total debt. They'll buy bonds with maturities between 2 and 30 years, longer than people were expecting. They'll buy bonds with negative yields too. 
• Draghi says there was a "large majority" of the ECB board in favour of the QE package. Enough that they didn't take a vote, but it doesn't sound unanimous.

It looks like this was more than the market had priced in: The euro is sinking against the dollar. Government bond yields across the eurozone are plunging to record low levels.

Draghi says there's "continued moderate growth" and says lower oil prices will help disposable incomes in Europe. But he adds that high unemployment is going to keep weighing on the eurozone. The ECB is expecting inflation to increase gradually later in 2015 and through 2016, and countries should use any "available scope" in fiscal policy to boost the recovery (he's talking to you, Germany).

Analysts were betting on a quantitative easing (QE) scheme worth about €500 billion ($580.95 billion) to €600 billion. Anything smaller would be a negative surprise for markets are would likely spark a nasty reaction this afternoon.

Pretty much every leak and official comment from the ECB in the last couple of months has been leading up to this. ECB press chief Michael Steen notes that the ECB has 13 camera crews coming tomorrow, as opposed to the usual 2-3.

The eurozone officially dropped into deflation in December, with consumer prices falling 0.2%, the first negative figure since 2009. It's likely to be falling further and further in the months ahead, with plunging oil prices driving the index down. 

Whatever happens, this will be one of the most important ECB meetings since the worst days of the euro crisis in 2012. 

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At the World Economic Forum in Davos, you hear of a lot of vague platitudes about job creation, inequality and economic growth. Some of the ideas you hear being floated are impossibly ambitious, like Al Gore's $90 trillion scheme to redesign every city on the planet.

But Sir Christopher Pissarides, a Nobel laureate economist at the London School of Economics (who taught Thomas Piketty as a student!) told Business Insider about a wonderfully simple idea that creates or sustains three jobs for each single job subsidised by government spending.

Conservatives ought to love this plan because the jobs created are entirely private-market driven. Left-wingers will love the plan too, because it creates jobs directly through government spending.

Here it is: subsidised childcare.

Yes, it sounds incredibly modest, even dull.

This is no grand scheme for airports or stadiums or tech hubs or high-speed rail. But the simple act of providing affordable daycare could add significantly to the GDP of any country that wants to take it seriously, Pissarides says.

Pissarides noticed that whenever working parents have kids in countries with minimal daytime childcare provision, one partner frequently stops working because the cost of daycare is so high it makes working 40 hours a week to pay for it seem not worth it. The mere act of having a baby reduces household income by turning a two-earner home into a one-earner home. And no childcare worker is employed because of the cost disincentive.

By providing subsidised childcare, there is an economic multiplier effect: both parents continue working and a third worker in childcare is added to the labour force. All of them pay taxes. Without childcare, two workers are turned into one, and both labour productivity and the tax base shrink by the same.

It doesn't sound like much, but in economics labour productivity plays a huge role in economic growth overall. The more productive a job is, the more an entire nation prospers. The UK's economic growth is currently handicapped because the only jobs we're adding are crappy low-wage, low productivity positions. In the US, the economy is growing nearly twice as fast because tech companies are adding high-paid, high-productivity jobs as fast as they possibly can.

Childcare lets two workers continue in jobs that are likely to be paid more or have higher productivity (the mere act of staying in the labour force is likely to raise your wages over time, of course).

Italy, Pissarides says, is a prime example of how this can go wrong. It has a lower female workforce participation rate precisely because the cost of childcare makes having a job and kids not worth it. (The US also suffers from expensive daycare — if you have kids, or know anyone with kids, you'll know a family where one parent has dropped out of the labour force, lowering the wealth of the household. And, perhaps not coincidentally, tech company jobs are famous for their luxurious side benefits, like childcare).

Sweden is in the opposite position to Italy. The government there subsidises childcare. As a result, "They create at least twice as many jobs in Sweden as Italy," Pissarides says. About 12-15% of jobs in Sweden's economy are care-based he says.

Pissarides is currently working on a larger study of the economic effect of daycare which he hopes will put some harder numbers on its effect on economic growth. In the meantime, you can get a taste of his thinking here and here.

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Washington (AFP) - New claims for US unemployment insurance benefits, an indicator of the pace of layoffs, fell last week after a surge the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Initial jobless claims totaled 307,000 in the week ending January 17, down 10,000 from the previous week's revised level, the agency said.

The prior week's claims reading was revised up by 1,000 to 317,000, the highest level since early June.

Analysts had expected a larger decline last week in claims, to 302,000.

The Labor Department said there was no special factor affecting the seasonally adjusted data, but analysts pointed out that weekly seasonal adjustments after the November-December holiday shopping season can prove difficult.

The four-week moving average, which helps to smooth out week-over-week volatility, was 306,500 last week, reflecting an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's upwardly revised average of 300,000.

A year ago, the moving average was higher, at 335,000.

The new claims number marked the second straight week that claims have been above 300,000.

"The rise is too small to date to signal an uptrend, but the data merit watching," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics.

The US unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in December from 5.8 percent in November, the lowest level since June 2008. The economy added nearly three million jobs in 2014.

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Samsung is preparing to release its next Galaxy smartphone within the next several weeks, and over the past few months we've heard endless rumors about what to expect. 

But the latest leak, which comes from BGR, suggests the phone's standout features will be its redesigned body, faster processor, and sharper screen.

The S6 will also reportedly come with a fast charging feature that will get you four hours of usage after only charging the phone for 10 minutes. 

According to the site, which has a mixed track record with leaks but completely nailed the Amazon Fire Phone long before it launched, the Galaxy S6 will run on a 64-bit processor like the iPhone 6 that's 50% faster than its predecessor.

This follows a Bloomberg report that indicated Samsung would ditch Qualcomm and use its own house-made chips for future phones.

The screen will remain at 5.1 inches, but it sounds like Samsung is boosting its resolution. The Galaxy S6's screen will supposedly cram 577 pixels in each inch of the phone's screen, while the Galaxy S5's 1080p screen fits 432 pixels per inch. This would line up with previous rumors that suggested Samsung would use a 2560 x 1440 resolution screen for the Galaxy S6 as opposed to a 1080p display.

We've been hearing for months that Samsung has been planning to design its Galaxy S6 "from scratch," but we still have no idea what that really means. BGR's report, however, insists the S6 will be made of glass and metal, allowing for a more premium design similar to phones like the iPhone or the HTC One.

Samsung has already started incorporating metal into some of its phones like the Galaxy Alpha, but it's hard to believe that we'll see glass appear on the S6. Samsung has been reluctant to sacrifice the removeable back on its phones, which allow you to swap out back covers and batteries, so it's hard to imagine exactly where glass would fit into the design other than on its screen.

The S6 will reportedly have built-in wireless charging and a 2550mAh battery, which is larger than that of the iPhone 6, but a bit smaller than the HTC One's. Samsung's own NFC mobile payments system, which we've heard about in the past, is also expected to debut on the phone. Expect to see the standard 32, 64, and 128GB storage options too. 

If BGR's information is accurate, it seems like the S6 could be one of Samsung's best smartphones yet. When the Galaxy S4 launched in 2013, many criticized it for its cheap plastic design and gimmicky features, such as gesture detection and eye tracking. Samsung toned this down with the S5, focusing less on flashy features and keeping its phone more simple and basic. Now, it sounds like Samsung is taking that a step further with the S6 by improving the phone's design. 

We're expecting to learn about the Galaxy S6 at this year's Mobile World Congress in March.

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The NFL planned to inspect the game balls used in the AFC Championship Game at halftime after getting a pregame tip that the New England Patriots were using underinflated balls, Fox Sports' Jay Glazer reports.

According to Glazer, the Colts were "tipped off" before the game, possibly by the Baltimore Ravens, and they told the NFL to look into it.

Here's what Glazer said on Fox Sports 1 on Wednesday night:

The Indianapolis Colts, they were tipped off to this before the game ever even happened. Whether or not it was from the last time they played them ...  I was told it was actually from people inside Baltimore. They were tipped off about it. So they informed the league.

Bob Glauber of Newsday reported earlier in the week that the scandal started after Colts linebacker D'Qwell Jackson intercepted Tom Brady early in the second quarter. According to Glauber, a Colts equipment manager noticed that the ball felt deflated, so he told the head coach, who told the general manager, who told a high-ranking NFL official, who told the referees on the field.

But Glazer says the balls would have been inspected at halftime no matter what because the league had heard rumors about this type of thing.

"Here's the bottom line: the league was already tipped off," Glazer said. "So they were already planning at halftime to inspect the balls, despite the interception that happened with D'Qwell Jackson."

Glazers says the balls were found to be deflated at halftime but were reinflated for use in the second half.

The Colts previously played the Patriots on Nov. 16. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Colts had "concerns" about ball inflation during that game and informed the league.

The Ravens played the Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs. While there was a report that a player on the Ravens special teams felt the special "k-balls" that are used for kicking were underinflated, that claim has been thoroughly debunked.

We still don't know how 11 of the 12 balls the Patriots used on offense got deflated.

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Paris (AFP) - The yield on 10-year Italian and Spanish government bonds fell to record lows on Thursday after the European Central Bank announced a massive bond buying programme.

At 1400 GMT the rate of return to investors on benchmark Spanish 10-year bonds hit a record low of 1.450 percent, down from 1.530 percent the night before. Meanwhile the yield on Italian 10-year bonds hit a record of 1.609 percent, down from 1.691 percent on Wednesday.

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After getting a master's degree in philosophy from Oxford in 1993, Reid Hoffman was ready to enter the world of academia. But a job at Apple started a career in tech that eventually led him to cofound LinkedIn in 2002.

Today, Hoffman is a Silicon Valley power player with an estimated net worth of $4 billion, and LinkedIn has a market capitalization of about $26 billion. He serves as the executive chairman of LinkedIn and partner of venture capital firm Greylock.

Entrepreneur and author Ben Casnocha has worked closely with Hoffman since 2010, collaborating on the books "The Start-up of You" and "The Alliance," and serving as Hoffman's chief of staff from 2012 to 2014.

In Casnocha's new blog post, "10,000 Hours with Reid Hoffman: Lessons on Business and Life," he reflects on the time spent with his mentor. We've summarized seven of the leadership lessons he learned from Hoffman.

1. Recognize that everyone has flaws, but acknowledge their strengths.

Casnocha writes that Hoffman doesn't fall into the easy trap of seeing people in a binary way, as in brilliant or an idiot, ethical or conniving.

Hoffman, Casnocha writes, "appreciates the full spectrum of strengths and weaknesses of a particular person. He'll comment on a friend's character flaw — say, self-centeredness — but in the next breath note one of their unique strengths. Flaws that cause others to completely disengage are, for Reid, 'navigable' (to use a Reid-ism) en route to their better side."

2. The best way to get powerful people's attention is to offer them value.

"As chief of staff, I reviewed thousands of requests for Reid's time/attention/money. It was stunning how few requesters offered to help him on something," Casnocha writes.

If you're looking to connect with someone important, offer them information that only you can provide, Casnocha says. You're fighting for the attention of someone who is tremendously busy. Stand out from the crowd by explaining why you're worth their time.

3. Move fast, keep things simple, and trust your employees.

Casnocha says that Hoffman has never formally studied corporate strategy, but he's developed his own three-tiered approach based on speed, simplicity, and empowerment.

"If you move quickly, there'll be mistakes borne of haste. If you're a manager and care seriously about speed, you'll need to tell your people you're willing to accept the tradeoffs," Casnocha writes.

Hoffman told him that he's willing to accept a mistake rate of 10% to 20% for the sake of speed, with one caveat: While startup managers should move extremely fast, they need to slow down their decision-making process as the company grows.

Along with speed comes focus, which means that your company's direction should be clear enough that you and your team know exactly how to move forward.

And finally, trust your managers to make their own decisions. Communicate that the strategy you pass onto them is subject to any changes they think will work best. Maximize efficiency, and avoid micromanaging.

4. Let people know they're appreciated.

There are times when you praise someone's work simply because they deserve it and you're being kind. It's important to understand, however, that your superiors appreciate flattery the same way that your underlings do, even if they act as though they don't.

"Reid is a student of self-deception behavior and builds mental models for specific people and the areas where there tends to be a gap between their self-perception and reality. One common case of this has to do with flattery," Casnocha writes. Even if someone acts like they're above compliments, use them at key moments and things will go more smoothly.

That said, only offer these compliments if you mean them, Casnocha writes, since your superiors can easily detect when you're sucking up and not think the better of you for it.

And finally, treat everyone you encounter in your career with respect. Casnocha remembers the time when former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer warmly introduced himself to him and Hoffman, while a tech exec's publicist shook Hoffman's hand but acted as though Casnocha didn't exist. Sometimes the lower-profile people you encounter are more powerful than you think, or will be one day.

5. Be upfront with any misaligned objectives you may have with whoever you're working with.

When Casnocha and Hoffman met with Random House for their first book, they made it clear that they were more interested in getting readers than reaping a profit, and floated the idea of offering a free ebook version, which the publisher didn't like. "This misalignment didn't torpedo the deal. But being aware of it helped us better navigate the ongoing relationship," Casnocha writes.

"Make misalignments explicit with yourself and the other party so that if and when they rear their head, neither side is surprised."

6. Prioritize personality over skill set when hiring.

Casnocha says that Hoffman believes you should, "Trade up on trust, even if it means you have to trade down on competency a bit." That is, the trust you have in someone is ultimately more important than their résumé, since if they're capable enough, they can always learn a new skill.

Casnocha says he benefited from this personally. After he and Hoffman built a strong degree of trust in each other, Hoffman would give Casnocha assignments that he wasn't necessarily the best qualified for on paper, but they moved forward with "lightning speed" because they knew how the other worked.

7. Surround yourself with people you admire.

This is the most important lesson of all, Casnocha says.

"[T]he people you spend the most time with will change you in ways you cannot anticipate or ever fully understand after the fact. The most important choice of all is who you choose to surround yourself with."

You can read the full essay, which includes an in-depth look at 16 lessons, at Casnocha's blog.

SEE ALSO: Brilliant Management Advice From LinkedIn's Billionaire Founder

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Speaker company Sonos has updated its logo. Now, when you scroll with your mouse, it looks like the logo is pulsating, much like a speaker thanks to an optical illusion, notes The Verge. 

Go ahead, scroll back and forth on this page. You'll see it. It's a small thing, but it's clever for a speaker company.

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