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The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 2,096 – here's what Wall Street's forecasters predicted at the beginning of the year (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)

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Tom Lee

In 2014, Wall Street's stock market forecasts proved too conservative

The S&P 500 closed the year at 2,058, above the year-end forecast of all but one strategist — FundStrat's Tom Lee. 

For 2015, Wall Street sees stocks gaining some ground, but few strategists are calling for the fourth straight year of double-digit gains from stocks. 

The average year-end target on the S&P 500 is 2,225 on earnings of $125.35, with the median forecast for the S&P 500 to rise to 2,213 on earnings of $126.

Tom Lee is a big bull again, as is Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus and RBC's Jonathan Golub, while David Kostin at Goldman Sachs is a bit more cautious.

Here are the outlooks, ranked from lowest to highest:

Goldman Sachs' David Kostin: S&P 500: 2,100, EPS: $122.00

"We forecast US stocks will deliver a modest total return of 5% in 2015, in line with profit growth. The US economy will expand at a brisk pace. Corporations will boost sales and keep margins elevated allowing managements to both invest for growth and return cash to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. Investors will cheer these positive fundamental developments."

Barclays' Jonathan Gilonna: S&P 500: 2,100, EPS $127.00

"We believe US equities are transitioning out of a recovery rally and into a period of lower returns as the benefits of margin expansion and share repurchases prove to be already priced in and a return of faster revenue growth becomes a prerequisite for another re-rating higher. We forecast the S&P 500 to reach 2100 by the end of 2015. We expect faster earnings growth outside the US in 2015 and, with lower valuations and a looser policy stance, we prefer 'international' stocks over US stocks. One of the reasons this strategy did not work in 2014 was the heavy positioning toward overseas markets established during 2013 and early 2014. This appears much less extreme now and therefore likely to be less of a constraint on our view in 2015.

Credit Suisse's Andrew Garthwaite: S&P 500 2,100, EPS: $123.70

"We remain optimistic on equities for the first half of 2015 but fear a significant market correction in the second half. Consequently, our year-end forecast for the S&P 500 is 2,100, below our mid-year target of 2,200. In 2015, central bank balance sheets are likely to expand at a more rapid rate than in 2014. This helps to support excess liquidity and equity valuations. We expect profit margins to peak toward the end of 2015 as labor regains pricing power and borrowing costs move higher. We are 4% below consensus for US EPS growth in 2015."

Deutsche Bank's David Bianco: S&P 500: 2,150, EPS: $123.00

"We still expect a long lasting economic expansion of moderate growth, which should rival the US record of 10 years with S&P EPS growth averaging 6% until the next recession, on 5% sales growth, flat margins, 1% share shrink," Bianco wrote. "Despite entering the latter years of a typical expansion and high margins vs. history, we now think the trailing S&P PE should average 17 vs. 16 until elevated recession risk returns."

BTIG's Dan Greenhaus: S&P 500: 2,200, EPS: $126.00

"We believe the bias for stock prices in general remains to the upside, underpinned by a growing economy, low interest rates and increasingly, cheaper oil ... With operating margins at elevated levels, top line growth is poised to more quickly bleed through to the bottom line, thus supporting earnings." Recall that Greenhaus channeled Britney Spears' 2001 song "I'm Not a Girl, Not Yet a Woman" to express his thoughts on the market: "Not a bull, not yet a bear."

Citi's Tobias Levkovich: S&P 500: 2,200, EPS: $127.50

After heading to Asia for year-end client meetings, Levkovich wrote: "A 10% total return in the next 13-14 months was perceived as being too conservative by many even as our year-end target is in line with mean and median top-down forecasts ... Interestingly, several clients suggested that our outlook was far below the bullishness expressed by other even when our numbers are pretty much well within the Street's consensus."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Savita Subramanian: S&P 500: 2,200, EPS: $126.00

"Stocks certainly look more attractive than bonds, but the case for stocks versus other asset classes is less clear ... "So while returns may compress from the outsized gains we have seen over the last several years, we remain constructive on equities. The bull market in stocks is not over, in our view." Subramanian also said that "big, old and ugly" stocks could be leaders in 2015 while investors might be better served leaving the "new, shiny, exciting IPOs alone."

UBS' Julian Emmanuel: S&P 500: 2,225, EPS: $126.00

"The S&P 500 has risen 200% since the bull market began in March 2009 — not unprecedented by historical standards. Buoyed by strong corporate balance sheets positioned to drive further M&A, the prospect of solid GDP anchoring steady earnings growth, and a Fed set to raise interest rates while mindful of incoming data, we expect the advancing tide to continue rolling. We forecast a 2015 year-end S&P 500 price of 2,225 on the back of earnings growth and modest multiple expansion, typical in a maturing rally."

BMO's Brian Belski: S&P 500: 2,250, EPS: $126.00

"Given the combination of improving economic conditions and rebounding earnings growth, we believe 2015 will represent another year of solid gains for US stocks. Our models suggest a year-end S&P 500 price target of 2,250 on EPS of $126. ... [T]he average age of plant and equipment is at its highest levels in 50 and 15 years, respectively. The way we see it is that there is a tremendous amount of pent-up investment spending demand and ... we believe the next logical step for companies to improve growth prospects is to invest in their businesses."

Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker: S&P 500: 2,275, EPS: $126.10

"We head into 2015 bullish for the 3rd straight year. Our 12-month forward target for year-end 2015 is 2275, offering about 10% upside to today’s price, based on 7% earnings growth in 2015 and 2016 and modest further multiple expansion to near 17x forward earnings ... Multiple higher? The core of our thesis is that we are in the middle of a long US expansion, one that may last until 2020. Economic factors like consumer confidence, financial obligations, and delinquencies are all improving and the consumer may be more insulated than investors think from a back-up in yields, given 75% of their financial obligations are in the form of a mortgage, close to 90% of all mortgages are 30-year fixed, and the average mortgage is termed out at the lowest rate ever ... Taking these factors into account, we generally think it pays to remain sanguine."

Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus: S&P 500: 2,311, EPS: $126.00

"We expect the market to reach our target level on a combination of: sustained economic growth, corporate revenue and earnings growth (on the back of US expansion and process of international recovery), as well as further multiple expansion justified by the continued relative attractiveness of US equities on valuation, dividends and buybacks." Stoltzfus added that investors in the current bull market are more worried about what can go wrong than at any point in the last 30 years. "It’s no secret that 'animal spirits' and 'irrational exuberance' have been in measured if not short supply this bull market. We think that’s really a good thing and likely to carry stocks higher toward our target in 2015."

RBC's Jonathan Golub: S&P 500: 2,325, EPS: $130.00

As Business Insider's Sam Ro wrote: "Golub believes 2015, as in 2014, will be highlighted by healthy US GDP growth, lackluster global growth with China and Japan getting worse, elevated profit margins, low volatility, and most multiple expansion, that is higher price/earnings (P/E) multiples. Golub believes corporate revenues will track GDP higher. But earnings growth will pick up as companies clamp down on selling, general, and administrative (SG&A expenses)." Golub added, "Going forward, we believe that SG&A will be the most important driver of margins as compensation grows at a slower pace than revenues. In our view, this should provide 1- 2% of upside per year."

FundStrat's Tom Lee: S&P 500: 2,325, EPS: $129.00

"The current bull market is not going to end simply because 'stocks have gone up too much' ... The buyside is fairly cautious, seeing downside stemming from: (i) deflationary pressures of the 40% year-over-year oil decline, deceleration in China, Eurozone weakness, and the fall in 5-year inflation breakevens; and (ii) Fed monetary tightening ... Capital stock is again showing signs of pent-up demand, and as a consequence, companies and households will have to invest. In other words, obsolescence is playing a role here. Equipment needs to be replaced as it reaches the end of its useful life."

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Google's co-founders are about to sell $4.4 billion worth of shares (GOOG)

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larry page sergey brin planes

Google cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin are going to sell about $4.4 billion worth of company shares, according to a new filing with the SEC (which we first spotted thanks to Footnoted). 

It's basically an extension of a plan that was previously in place but expired at the end of January. 

As of January 30, 2015, Brin and Page held approximately 44.6 million shares of Google Class B stock and another 44.6 million shares of Class C stock.

Under the new trading plan just filed, they will sell approximately 2 million shares each of Class B common stock (which will automatically convert to Class A shares upon sales), as well as another 2 million shares each of their Class C non-voting stock.

After the transactions are complete, they will collectively own about 40.6 million shares of Class B stock and another 40.6 million shares of Class C stock, the filing says.

With both classes of Google stock trading at approximately $550 a share, the total 8 million shares they plan to sell translates to roughly $4.4 billion. The filing didn't specify when exactly the sale will take place, but it will be extended over a period of time to minimize market impact, the filing said.

Even after Page and Brin sell $4.4 billion worth of shares, they'll retain majority control of Google. Following the sales, Brin and Page will own only 11.9% of Google's outstanding Class A and Class B common stock, yet still hold 52% of the voting power.

This is possible because of Google's dual-class share structure. Class B shares, mostly owned by Brin, Page, and Google Chairman Eric Schmidt, hold 10X the voting power of the common Class A stock. It's why Class B shares are often called "Super-voting" shares. (The Class C stock, introduced in 2012, has no voting power at all. Here's an explainer if you're confused as to why Google would do this.)

Google founders Larry Page and Sergey BrinDual-class structure is now pretty common among tech companies, as Facebook, Linkedin, and Box all have adopted this model. But Google was one of the first companies to bring this to the mainstream when it went public in 2004.

It was very rare to see investors allow this type of structure because it gives too much control to insiders when a company is supposed to be publicly owned. Prior to Google, it was mostly family-run media companies, like The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, that had this model, all under the name of protecting editorial independence.

Google duly acknowledged this in its S1 back in 2004, as it wrote, “We are creating a corporate structure that is designed for stability over long time horizons...By investing in Google, you are placing an unusual long term bet on the team, especially Sergey and me, and on our innovative approach.”

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Apple may have hundreds of people working on an electric car that looks like a minivan

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tim cook

Adding to the recent reports about an Apple vehicle, the Wall Street Journal reports that Apple has hundreds of people working on an electric vehicle under the code-name Titan.

The current design apparently looks like a minivan.

This is just the latest story this week about Apple building a car. It seemed like a far-fetched idea a month ago, but now?

To recap:

Jony Ive

Now, the Journal adds a lot more detail to these reports.

Apparently the project has been underway for more than a year and has hundreds of people working on it. It's reportedly being led by Steve Zadesky, a former Ford engineer who also helped build the iPhone. Johann Jungwirth, the chief of research and development at Mercedes-Benz in North America, was hired away in September to help run the project, too.

Apple investigates new product areas all the time, and there's a chance this won't ever come to market, but the size of the team and the executives hired to work on it make it seem pretty serious. Plus, apparently Steve Jobs was talking about an iCar in 2009, and chief designer Jony Ive has had a bit of an obsession with the poor design of American cars.

Tim Cook coyly hinted last year that Apple had projects that nobody knew about. It appears that this vehicle is one of them.

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This calendar beautifully captures the biggest holidays in major religions and countries

Why you should watch 'Breaking Bad' in one chart

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You still haven't watched "Breaking Bad"? Even after the Emmys, the national obsession, and the feverish recommendations of anyone you ask? Oh, so you watched the first two episodes and thought they were cool, but the main character was unlikable, and it seemed like a little too much to get into?

Look. If you need to be convinced that AMC's masterpiece is worth starting and sticking with, then just look at the following graph. It comes from the very useful site Graph TV, which lets you plot the IMDB ratings of any show over time.

Site founder Kevin Wu said "Breaking Bad" had one of the most dramatic graphs he has seen. Not only does it get extremely high ratings, but it keeps going up.

"It seems to just get better within each season and season by season,"Wu wrote in an email.

breaking bad graph tv

SEE ALSO: You should watch 'Better Call Saul'

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Here are the best discounts on luggage this President's Day [everything 60% off or more]

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WANT MORE? Click Here To See Our Other Insider Picks

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THE PAYMENTS INDUSTRY EXPLAINED: The trends creating new winners and losers in the massive credit-card industry

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Payment card ecosystemThe payments industry had a huge year in 2014 and it's showing no sign of slowing down. On the one hand tech giants like Amazon and Apple released new products that affirmed their long-term payments ambitions (Apple Pay and Amazon Local Register). On the other hand startups such as Stripe and ShopKeep continued to carve out market share, challenging older players like PayPal and VeriFone. 

Understanding this complex and rapidly evolving space can be challenging. In a new explainerBI Intelligence offers a high-level look at the payments industry — how it functions, who the key players are, and the trends shaping the industry. We start by explaining payment-card processing, since the majority of consumer payments and transaction volume flow through this system. From there we take a look at how consumers' move to mobile devices is changing the way we pay, and which players stand to benefit.

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Here are some of the key takeaways:

In full, the report:

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Rare ray of hope in UN climate talks

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At the very core of the intended pact, countries remain deeply divided on the issue of

Geneva (AFP) - The detente achieved at UN talks that concluded with a framework for a world climate pact is only temporary, achieved by kicking the difficult decisions down the road, parties and observers say.

But it also generated a degree of optimism rarely observed in the tense process -- a sense of common purpose which many hope will bolster negotiators in the months to come.

"I think this has been a very important meeting from a process point of view and a psychological point of view," said Union of Concerned Scientists analyst Alden Meyer.

He pointed to broad consultations held with country representatives by the talks' joint chairmen ahead of the six-day session in Geneva -- one of four official meetings this year to prepare for the December conference in Paris that must adopt a universal climate pact.

"That has paid off. People felt consulted, they felt listened to, they understood the process," he added.

"This is the parties' text, they own it now."

An official framework text prepared for the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, which failed to produce an agreement, had exceeded 300 pages and was challenged by a number of alternative drafts.

The 86-page Geneva blueprint, the product of years of negotiations, seems manageable by comparison, and represents the first-ever proposal with buy-in from all the world's nations.

"At this early stage, the palpable positive spirit coming out of Geneva is a much better measure of progress than the current length of the negotiating text," said Jennifer Morgan, climate director at the World Resources Institute think-tank.

The document lists a variety of alternative approaches on most issues -- often reflecting country positions that diametrically oppose one another.

It more than doubled from a 37-page draft compiled at a conference in Lima last December, with parties allowed to add items until they were satisfied all their views were represented.

"It's a bit unwieldy in the sense that they accepted every proposal that was made with no discussion or vetting or criteria, but that's what they had to do to assure parties that every idea that they wanted in the draft legal text that's going to be the basis for Paris was in there," said Meyer.

This, in turn, was taken to indicate a desire by all countries to be party to the final pact, though its form and content have yet to be determined and a lot of difficult editing now lies ahead.

"After years of false starts and broken promises, restoring ownership and trust in the process is no small achievement and I think we have come a long way toward doing that," said Ahmed Sareer, an envoy of the Alliance of Small Island States at highest risk of climate change-induced sea level rise.

UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, who oversees the negotiations, described such "trust-building" as the most valuable resource in the process to draft a plan for limiting manmade global warming.

"Optimism, trust, good mood is much more conducive to coming to terms with complicated issues," she said of the road ahead.

 

- Spirit of Geneva -

 

The Like-Minded Developing Countries group, which includes China, India, Saudi Arabia, several African, Asian and South American nations, said the talks had been "open, transparent and party-driven" and welcomed the result.

Europe said it would have wanted more progress on streamlining the text, but agreed the week had been "an important and necessary step for securing a negotiating text," according to EU delegation head Elina Bardram.

There had been "useful conversations with our partners in the corridors, in the margins, that will enhance common understanding," she added.

Parties will need all the goodwill they can muster for the last 10 months of negotiations for a universal pact seeking to limit warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

Christian Aid's senior climate adviser Mohamed Adow noted: "The tone of the negotiations here have been very optimistic but that's because we were only putting things in.

"The real fights will come when we start to take things out."

At the very core of the intended pact, countries remain deeply divided on the issue of "differentiation" -- how to share responsibility for emissions cuts between rich and poor nations.

Developing countries also want their developed counterparts to commit to long-term climate financing, and compensation for climate change-induced loss and damage.

Yet co-chairman Daniel Reifsnyder closed the meeting on a hopeful tone.

"May the Spirit of Geneva remain with you and guide you all on the road to Paris," he told delegates.

 

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Piers Morgan shared the email from David Carr that signaled the end of his CNN career

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In September 2014, Piers Morgan officially left CNN.

He began anchoring the network’s 9 p.m. slot in January 2011, replacing “Larry King Live."

Last February, rumors began swirling that Morgan's time at the news network was coming to a close after the show's ratings plummeted and Chelsea Handler called him a "terrible interviewer."

We may (or may not) be getting a little insight on some of the behind the scenes happenings in a tweet from Morgan on Friday, the day after beloved New York Times columnist, David Carr died.

You see in the tweet that Carr reached out to Morgan to tell him what Morgan likely already knew: the CNN show Morgan headlined – the one in which, sometimes, Morgan himself became the story – was coming to a quick and unceremonious end.

Carr noted in his email to Morgan that it was "partly due to American provincialism" and partly because of Morgan's failure to assimilate. Those sentiments were echoed across many media platforms at the lowest points of Morgan's CNN tenure.

But, Carr being the diligent reporter he was, offered Morgan a chance to speak about it on the record, and he did.

In Carr's article, published almost exactly one year ago, he wrote "There have been times when [Morgan] didn't seem to like America very much and American audiences have been more than willing to return the favor."

Morgan apparently agreed – citing his ratings, which were underwater – and Carr, quite fairly, gave Morgan the benefit of the doubt:

 

Carr pointed out that the British host could not both entertain and inform Americans while also vilifying them mercilessly. He punctuated that thought with this nugget of wisdom about working on this side of the pond: "if you want to stick out, you first have to work on fitting in."

SEE ALSO: The media world is crushed by the loss of David Carr

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Canada police foil shooting-spree plot

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Canadian police said they had foiled a plot that would have seen an armed duo carry out a shooting spree in the city of Halifax on Valentine's Day before killing themselves

MONTREAL (AFP) - Canadian police said they had foiled a plot that would have seen an armed duo carry out a shooting spree in the city of Halifax on Valentine's Day before killing themselves.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police in Nova Scotia said a 19-year-old man from the rural town of Timberlea had plotted with a 23-year-old woman from the US city of Geneva, Illinois to open fire somewhere in Halifax on Saturday. Two others were also allegedly involved.

It was not thought to be terror related.

They "had access to firearms and it was their intention to go to a public venue in the Halifax region on February 14th with a goal of opening fire to kill citizens, and then themselves," the RCMP said in a statement.

Police said the Timberlea man was found dead in a home early Friday morning.

The American woman was arrested shortly after -- along with a 20-year-old man -- without incident at the Halifax Stanfield International Airport.

Police arrested a fourth suspect, a 17-year-old boy from Cole Harbour, at a home later on Friday.

"It's a group of individuals that were of the same... mind to commit a heinous event and then take their own lives," RCMP Assistant Commissioner Brian Brennan told a news conference. 

Brennan told CTV News that the plot was not considered to be related to terrorism.

"We believe we have apprehended all known individuals in this matter and eliminated the threat," the RCMP statement read. 

"We are not seeking any further suspects at this time in relation to this investigation."

Police said they first received word of a "potential significant weapons-related threat" on Thursday morning.

"We became aware, we acted quickly and intercepted a threat," the RCMP said.

The region's Serious Incident Response Team was investigating the death of the Timberlea man.

Timberlea is a small town on the outskirts of Halifax in the rugged and remote Atlantic province of Nova Scotia.

Steven Blaney, the minister for public safety, praised the police operation to thwart the attack.

"These arrests are a great example of the fine work they do on a daily basis to help keep Canadians safe," he said in remarks reported by the CBC. 

"We support our law enforcement agencies who work tirelessly to ensure our communities are safe places to live, work and raise families," he said. 

The CBC also reported that police had warned one venue of the threat.

All three suspects were being kept in police custody.

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Mexico bus-train collision kills 16, 30 hurt

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**** DO NOT DELETE OR REMOVE - BREAKING NEWS LOGO ****

Monterrey (Mexico) (AFP) - At least 16 people were killed and 30 injured when a freight train slammed into a packed passenger bus in northeastern Mexico, authorities said, warning the death toll could rise.

The collision happened when the bus was attempting to cross the rail tracks in the city of Anahuac, Nuevo Leon state civil protection chief Jorge Camacho told AFP.

The accident occurred just after 5:00 pm (2300 GMT) at Camarones station, near the border with the United States.

Two children were among the 16 dead, said Mayor Desiderio Urteaga, although other local officials warned that the toll could be nearer to at least 20, with some trapped after the smash.

The bus was full, with 60 people on board.

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Henderson keen to shoulder more responsibility for Reds in FA Cup

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Liverpool's Jordan Henderson (R) slips past Bolton Wanderers' Conor Wilkinson during the FA Cup fourth round at Anfield, on January 24, 2015

London (AFP) - Liverpool midfielder Jordan Henderson says he is ready to lead from the front as his injury-hit side aim to avoid more misery at Crystal Palace in the FA Cup fifth round on Saturday.

With Reds captain Steven Gerrard likely to be sidelined for up to three weeks with a hamstring problem and Lucas Leiva out for six weeks with a thigh injury, central midfield looks a vulnerable area for Brendan Rodgers's team.

But Henderson, tipped as a potential Liverpool skipper when Gerrard leaves at the end of the season, is likely to start alongside Joe Allen at Selhurst Park and the England international is keen to show he can shoulder the responsibility of driving his team to victory.

"To lose Lucas first was a big blow because he has been outstanding for us since he came into the team as that defensive, holding midfielder," Henderson said.

"Obviously Stevie (Gerrard) is a big loss, even though it is not as long (as Lucas), but there are some big games coming up that he might not be involved in.

"But it is another chance for people to come in and show what they are made of and slot straight into the team. Hopefully someone can do that.

"Maybe I need to take more responsibility with those two players gone."

Last season, several of Rodgers's team left the field in tears after squandering their last chance of winning the Premier League title as they blew a three-goal lead in an epic 3-3 draw at Selhurst Park.

They fared even worse on their first return since then to Palace, where they haven't won since 1997, as the Eagles, then managed by Neil Warnock, romped to a 3-1 win in November that Rodgers regards as his club's lowest point of the season.

Palace's recently appointed manager Alan Pardew also has history in this fixture after famously scoring the winning goal when the Eagles shocked Liverpool in the 1990 FA Cup semi-finals.

- United in the spotlight -

Manchester United will continue their lower league odyssey when they face League One side Preston North End at Deepdale on Monday.

Louis van Gaal's team have narrowly avoided potential FA Cup upsets against minnows Yeovil and Cambridge United this term and shouldn't be taking victory for granted in their first encounter with Preston since 1972.

United have already lost to one third tier opponent this season, crashing out of the League Cup against Milton Keynes Dons, and they needed a replay to get past fourth tier Cambridge in the last round.

Simon Grayson's Preston are fourth in the third tier table and veteran striker Kevin Davies, a former England international, hopes his team can take advantage of the negativity surrounding Van Gaal's use of long ball tactics this season.

"There have been a few boos about the long balls and the style of play has not been great," Davies said.

"Just looking at one or two of the players, like (Robin) Van Persie scoring against Burnley, no real smile, he didn't look particularly happy. Wayne Rooney playing a bit deeper.

"Are they enjoying it as much as they used to? I don't get that impression.

"They're fantastic players but I don't think they're living up to expectations."

Holders Arsenal host Middlesbrough on Sunday boosted by the news that Alexis Sanchez did not suffer a serious knee injury in the midweek win against Leicester.

The Chile winger took a knock that left Gunners boss Arsene Wenger admitting he was concerned, but the problem is only minor, although the manager may opt not to risk Sanchez against the second tier leaders, especially with Wales midfielder Aaron Ramsey already sidelined by a hamstring injury.

Third tier giant-killers Bradford, fresh from their stunning 4-2 win at Chelsea in the previous round, will try to claim another famous scalp when they take on Sunderland at Valley Parade.

Aston Villa play for the first time since the midweek sacking of manager Paul Lambert as Leicester visit Villa Park in a clash between two clubs currently marooned in the Premier League relegation zone.

FA Cup fifth round fixtures (1500 GMT unless stated):

Saturday

Blackburn v Stoke, Crystal Palace v Liverpool (1730 GMT), Derby v Reading, West Brom v West Ham (1245 GMT)

Sunday

Arsenal v Middlesbrough (1600 GMT), Aston Villa v Leicester (1230 GMT), Bradford v Sunderland (1430 GMT)

Monday

Preston v Manchester United (1945 GMT)

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Orhan Pamuk, anxious observer of the new Turkey

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Turkish Nobel laureate author Orhan Pamuk works at his desk at his house in Istanbul, on Febuary 2, 2015

Istanbul (AFP) - Submerged in his new novel, Turkey's Nobel prize laureate Orhan Pamuk gazes out over the city of Istanbul, the main protagonist of his books, keeping a troubled eye over the development of his country.

Pamuk, author of best-selling modern classics including the "My Name is Red" and "The Museum of Innocence", has for some three decades been the face of modern Turkish literature at home and aborad.

His novels, translated into dozens of languages, won him the 2006 Nobel Prize in Literature -- but also the sometimes unwelcome status as the moral voice of a fast changing nation.

Receiving Agence France-Presse for an interview at his Istanbul apartment overlooking the Bosphorus, Pamuk made clear he wanted to be seen as a novelist and not reduced to a secular opponent of Islamic-rooted President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"Not only (do) I have to manoeuvre myself to fight with the government but I also have to hear people's demands," he told AFP. 

"In a way, anyone who is in trouble or feels that the government is not doing well for them wants me to rightfully represent their problems".

"My (Nobel) prize didn't make my life easy but of course I'm happy to deal with all these problems."

Compared to "generations of writers" in Turkey who were jailed, exiled or even killed, "I feel myself very lucky," he said.

- 'Palimpsest of civilisation' -

He expressed discomfort with media interviews, saying that after discussing literature for half an hour and politics for 20 minutes what is ultimately broadcast is one minute of literature and 20 minutes of politics.

Sitting behind a desk piled high with books, Pamuk's view takes in almost two millenia of Byzantine and Ottoman history in Istanbul -- the Golden Horn, the Ayasofya and the Blue Mosque.

Taking pains to speak in precise and accurate English, Pamuk said his last published novel, "A Strangeness in My Mind", was an attempt to show a changing Istanbul through the eyes of one character.

The story is about a street vendor who sells items including boza, a traditional drink made from fermented wheat "that people enjoy at night and associated with Ottomanness, Turkishness and romantic dreams of Ottoman life. 

"On the other hand, my character... shows the reader how this city -- street by street, shop by shop, window by window -- changes."

When the book begins in the 1970s, Istanbul's population was just two million, but now it is up to 16 million, he noted.

Whether Pamuk is writing about 20th century Turkey (as in "The Museum of Innocence") or mediaeval times (as in "My Name is Red"), the city of Istanbul has almost been the main character in his works.

"For me, the sense of Istanbul is Bosphorus, history, a palimpsest of civilisation, with monumental buildings and a continuous construction where people built and complain, complain and complain but enjoy their... modern life." 

"Which is all the contradictions that define Istanbul."

- 'Free speech violated' -

Pamuk may be reluctant to be seen as a political figure, but he remains unequivocally critical of Erdogan who has boasted of transforming the country into a "new Turkey" with ambitious building projects.

He said that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was "destroying the balance of powers, which is in fact the key to any democracy." 

"In that sense, Turkey is only a electoral democracy, but a democracy where the respect of human rights, free speech are violated every day."

Pamuk leaves Turkey every year to teach for a semester at New York at Columbia University and said he could sense the change when he returned last. 

"When I came back, I felt a climate of fear, people whispering."

Commenting on Turkey's recent history, from coup-happy generals to Erdogan, he said: "Authoritarian soldiers were (pushed) out, (an) authoritarian and Islamist government took their place".

Erdogan and the AKP have dominated Turkey's highly diverse society for over a decade but have been facing unprecedented challenges after 2013 mass protests followed by stunning corruption allegations against the elite.

"In a sense, the mystery of political Islam vanished because of the convincing power of corruption allegations," said Pamuk.

He is far more reticent when asked to comment on the mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman forces during World War I, a tragedy which Pamuk had in 2005 labelled a "genocide".

Those comments, which broke a longstanding taboo on the issue by any prominent Turkish figure, brought him death threats as well as legal proceedings that were eventually abandoned.

"I had a lot of trouble eight to 10 years ago because I talked freely about this subject." 

For now, Pamuk is focusing on putting the finishing touches to a new novel which he says will be a surprise for some readers.

In typical Pamuk style, it tells the story of a well digger in Istanbul and his apprentice and is "allegorical".

But this time there is a difference.

"The whole problem here is that this time I want to write a short novel, and break the heart of my traditional readers who always tell me to write a long one," he said.

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From 'Haircut' to 'Dirty Exit': Greek bailout buzz words

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A man begs for money in central Athens on  February 12, 2015

Athens (AFP) - The Greek bailout drama has given rise to a series of buzz words that so rile Athens they have become no-go areas for those attempting to broker a deal.

Here is a list of the offending words:

"Troika" -- the nickname for Greece's creditors, the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank -- all of whom keep tabs on Athens to ensure they're getting enough reforms for their buck.

For many Greeks, the troika is made up of faceless bureaucrats, despised "men in black" with no democratic legitimacy, who lurk around the ministry of finance or gleefully order Athens around by email -- the utmost insult.

"Memorandum" -- this is the deal Greece signed with its creditors in 2010 and again in 2012, which comes to an end on February 28 unless Athens asks to extend it. In exchange for billions of euros in aid, Greece was obliged to implement a slew of unpopular reforms -- termed "barbaric" by the new Greek government -- which included public sector lay-offs, pushing back the retirement age and raising taxes.

"Germany" -- the byword on the streets of Greece for a ruthless and interfering austerity policy, which claims to be a remedy for the eurozone debt crisis but is squeezing ordinary Greeks dry. Angela Merkel and her finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble are frequently caricatured -- sometimes in Nazi uniform -- in newspaper cartoons depicting Greece as a German colony.

It can also be a catchword for money due, after Athens renewed claims that Berlin owes it around 162 billion euros ($183 billion) -- or around half the country's public debt -- in reparations and an unreturned war loan.

"Extension" and "Bridge" -- The EU says Greece must prolong its bailout or risk defaulting on its debts and crashing out of the eurozone. The Greek government insists it wants a "bridge programme" instead, which would tie it over while it negotiates a new deal.

Cartoons in Greece's dailies have had a field day with this, with Greece's Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis depicted enthusiastically building bridges, only to find in one case that his unfinished wooden creation was about to be felled by a saw-wielding Merkel.

"Grexit" and "Dirty Exit" -- A Greek default would likely mean its exit from the eurozone, but the knock-on effect on its European neighbours feared in 2011 and 2012 may be avoided.

After the diplomatic efforts scrambled across the EU to keep Athens in the zone, however, a failure to clinch a deal before the bailout expires at the end of the month would lead to a "dirty exit" -- a term flung about by analysts but strictly avoided by politicians.

"Haircut" -- Ruling radical left party Syriza wants Greece's creditors to write off part of the money it owes. Faced with EU resistance, the government appears open to settling for an extended deadline for debt repayment and lower interest rates -- which Varoufakis has termed essentially a haircut with another name.

"Structural reforms" -- This is the watchword of the central banks, from Mario Draghi of the ECB to Jens Weidmann of the Bundesbank, who never miss an occasion to remind the Greek government, and other European countries, that it's the key to their future growth.

Their biggest fear? That concessions to Greece would weaken the resolve of others such as Italy and Portugal to implement reforms.

"ELA" -- This is the Emergency Liquidity Assistance granted by the Bank of Greece under the European Central Bank's approval, and is the life-jacket keeping the country's banks afloat since the ECB cut off a key funding avenue last week.

Critics worry the ELA is only serving to keep the Greek banks alive artificially and have called for strict criteria to govern access.

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In battle for Kobane, US crews recount heavy bombing

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An air strike on Tilsehir hill at Yumurtalik village, Sanliurfa province,  near the Turkish border, October 23, 2014

Washington (AFP) - American pilots call it "going Winchester," when a warplane drops every bomb on board, and air crews for the B-1 bomber told AFP it was not uncommon in the battle for the Syrian town of Kobane, recaptured by Kurdish forces last month.

The airmen, recently returned from a six-month stint flying combat missions over Syria and Iraq, recounted how American aircraft relentlessly pounded Islamic State jihadists fighting the Kurds in Kobane.

The heavy bombing, not seen since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, helped the Kurds hold and eventually recapture the northern border town last month, a symbolic blow to the extremists who appeared on the verge of seizing Kobane in October.

"When you went to Kobane, you could almost guarantee you were going to release a weapon that day," said Captain Todd Saksa, a B-1 weapons systems officer.

The 31-year-old Saksa had flown other missions in Afghanistan but what was different this time was "the sheer number of weapons dropped," he said by phone from Dyess Air Force Base in Texas.

B-1 pilot Major Brandon Miller, 38, has been deployed five times in warzones, but he had never before dropped as many bombs as during the battle for Kobane. 

"I personally went Winchester three times," he said. Before that, he had never emptied his weapons bay.

In previous six-month tours over Afghanistan, it was typical for his squadron to unload 15 to 20 bombs. 

But in their last deployment, the squadron dropped more than 2,000 bombs and hit more than 1,700 targets, he said. 

The B-1B Lancer was built in the 1980s during the Cold War to fly low and fast into Soviet air space. 

But the supersonic plane became a "workhorse" for the American-led air campaign in Kobane, delivering much of the firepower that took out IS fighters and vehicles, US Air Force officers said.

Unlike fighter jets, the bomber -- dubbed "the Bone" by air crews -- is able to linger for hours over a target thanks to a large fuel tank and can hold a much larger payload of weapons, with roughly two dozen bombs of different sizes.

- Eight hours over Kobane -

In a six-month period, the B-1 flew 18 percent of all strike flights against IS and accounted for 43 percent of the total tonnage of munitions dropped in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, officials said. 

The airmen with the 9th Bomb Squadron had deployed to the Middle East in July preparing for missions over Afghanistan, where a small US force rarely if ever would call in a bombing raid.

But one night in August, a B-1 was ordered to hold on the runway. Instead of Afghanistan, the four-man crew was told they would be heading to northern Iraq to escort planes dropping supplies to encircled Yazidis on Mount Sinjar.

By October, the bombers were frequently flying to aid the embattled Kurds in Kobane, staying eight hours overhead -- with one mid-air refueling at the four-hour mark -- looking for IS fighters who were often in plain sight.

The targets were either spotted by the crews or relayed by Kurdish fighters, whose requests would be passed to America's air operations center in Qatar. 

Without US forward air controllers near the front line, approval for a strike could take up to 45 minutes, officers said.

The IS fighters, unaccustomed to being hunted from the air, took a pummeling -- until they learned to conceal their movements.

The bombers were often joined by two or more F-15 or F-16 fighter jets, ensuring that "we had air power overhead almost 24 hours a day in Kobane," said Lieutenant Colonel Ed Sumangil, 40, commander of the squadron.

And unlike the past decade of US wars where insurgents often relied on roadside bombs and ambushes, there was a clear front line in Kobane, a conventional battle between two forces and no civilians nearby. 

"There were good guys on one side and ISIL (IS) on the other side," Miller said.

The front line, or what the pilots call the "forward line of troops," shifted day to day, and sometimes hour to hour in favor of the Kurds. 

- 'Rings of light' -

At night, the pilots could see see the outlines of the Turkish border near Kobane as it was "well lit," Miller said, while the Syrian side of the border was covered in darkness.

On the last flight of his tour in January, things looked different.

"Two of the strategic hills that are in Kobane, both had lights on around them, which was actually kind of shocking to see because it had been dark there the entire time," Miller recalled.

"And all of a sudden there were very well-defined rings of light around these mountains. The lights were starting to come back on in Kobane." 

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UAE evacuates embassy staff from Yemen capital

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Yemeni security forces stand guard outside the French embassy in Sanaa on February 13, 2015

Abu Dhabi (AFP) - The United Arab Emirates became the latest country Saturday to suspended operations at its embassy in Yemen and evacuate staff over security concerns.

The move comes a day after Sunni-dominated regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia announced it had also evacuated all its staff from the embassy in Sanaa.

The Shiite Huthi militia, accused of receiving backing from Shiite-dominated Iran, dissolved Yemen's government and parliament on February 6 after seizing the presidential palace and key government buildings.

The UAE foreign ministry said in a statement carried by the official WAM news agency that it "has suspended embassy operations in the Yemeni capital Sanaa and evacuated all staff.

"This decision comes in light of the increasingly deteriorating political and security situation" and the "unfortunate events with the Huthis undermining legitimate authority in the country."

France, Germany and Italy took similar action on Friday, two days after Britain, the Netherlands and the United States pulled out.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said this week that Yemen was "collapsing before our eyes" and called for Western-backed President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi to be restored to power.

Foreign ministers of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council are to meet later on Saturday in the Saudi capital Riyadh for expected talks on the Yemen crisis.

Last week the GCC denounced the Huthi action as a coup.

 

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Upstarts outshine veterans ahead of Berlin film fest awards

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Tom Courtenay (L) and Charlotte Rampling pose during the photocall for the movie

Berlin (AFP) - The race for the Golden Bear top prize at the 65th Berlin film festival shaped up as a dead heat Saturday, with break-out talents looking well placed to pip cinema heavyweights.

Ahead of a gala awards ceremony in the German capital for the Berlinale, as the 11-day event is known, a slow-burn British drama about a foundering marriage and a banned Iranian picture emerged as favourites.

Britain's Charlotte Rampling, a hot pick for best actress, starred in "45 Years" as a woman whose husband learns the body of his long-dead first love has resurfaced.

The movie by Andrew Haigh led a critics' poll in Berlin's daily Tagesspiegel and industry magazine Screen, with Britain's Daily Telegraph giving it five out of five stars. 

Rampling has "rarely been better than she is here, in the role of a placid, dog-walking, tea-drinking middle-class Brit, who finds the floor abruptly falling out beneath her," its reviewer Tim Robey wrote from the festival.

Audiences also cheered Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi's "Taxi", the third picture he's made in defiance of an official ban.

Panahi, who is outlawed from travelling abroad and was absent from the Berlin premiere, appears on-screen as a Tehran cab driver, swapping stories with the denizens of his city.

A mounted dashboard camera allowed him to film in secret, away -- at first -- from the prying eyes of the Islamic state's authorities.

Film industry bible Variety called it a "terrific road movie" that offered "a provocative discussion of Iranian social mores and the art of cinematic storytelling".

Latin American movies were also out in force, with Chilean director Pablo Larrain making a splash with "The Club" about defrocked paedophile priests given refuge from justice by the Roman Catholic Church.

Trade magazine The Hollywood Reporter called it a "grippingly sinister portrait" and pronounced Larrain, who garnered an Oscar nomination for his 2012 black comedy "No", to be "one of the more genuine talents working in cinema today".

Guatemalan drama "Ixcanul Volcano" by Jayro Bustamante, about a teenage girl living with her family on a coffee plantation who plots to run away to the United States with her boyfriend, also drew warm applause.

 

- Shaky start -

 

While the latest releases by veterans such as Terrence Malick and Werner Herzog divided critics, Britain's Peter Greenaway fared better with his audacious biopic "Eisenstein in Guanajuato".

The sexually explicit film imagines an episode in the life of Sergei Eisenstein, the lionised Russian director of "Battleship Potemkin", who tried to relaunch his career in Mexico in 1931.

During his self-imposed exile, he starts a torrid affair with his local male guide.

Critics said Finland's Elmer Baeck, who portrayed Eisenstein as an exuberant intellectual and a charming clown, had strong odds to capture a gong as best actor.

Audiences also embraced inventive German heist movie "Victoria" by Sebastian Schipper, shot in a single take on the streets of Berlin.

The festival got off to a shaky start on February 5 with the premiere of Isabel Coixet's "Nobody Wants the Night", featuring Juliette Binoche as the early 20th century Arctic explorer Josephine Peary.

Peter Bradshaw of the Guardian called the picture "a pretty flimsy piece of work... which comes near to being broken on the wheel of its own ponderousness".

Smaller pictures from Romania and Russia later in the festival won fans, however.

"Sworn Virgin", the debut feature by Italy's Laura Bispuri, about a woman in the Albanian mountains who opts to pass as a man rather than live her life in marital subjugation, featured a much-praised turn by its star, Alba Rohrwacher. 

And a rare Russian-Ukrainian-Polish co-production, Alexei German Jr's dystopian vision of 2017 Russia, "Under Electric Skies", also found admirers.

"Nasty Baby", Chilean director Sebastian Silva's tale of a gay New York couple who want to have a child, scooped the "Teddy Award" on Friday night for the festival's best LGBT film.

A seven-member jury led by Hollywood director Darren Aronofsky will hand out the prestigious Golden and Silver Bear statuettes, which can propel a film to global box office success and bigger prizes.

Among award winners last year were "The Grand Budapest Hotel" and "Boyhood", both nominated for Oscars later this month, and the gritty Chinese thriller that won the Golden Bear, "Black Coal, Thin Ice".  

 

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How secret Swiss bank accounts actually work

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David BowieSecret Swiss bank accounts are infamous in the public eye, largely thanks to James Bond movies, and for getting a number of the world’s biggest lenders into hot water.

UBS finally confirmed that it is under investigation by the US authorities, again, for helping rich Americans to evade taxes. It already stumped up £512 million in 2009 to settle a tax evasion probe.

Meanwhile, HSBC is suffering from a serious financial data dump by whistleblower Herve Falciani, which resulted in the leakage of thousands of clients bank account details and millions of pounds recuperated in tax.

So how does the Swiss banking system work?

How to get a bank account

Setting up a secret Swiss and Luxembourg based bank account isn’t as tricky as you may think. As with all bank accounts, you fill in forms and provide identification.

However, as one former private banker detailed, the level of scrutiny over identification over the last decade and significantly changed.

"In the late '90s it took only a couple of sheets of A4 to register a new account,"Jay Vaananen, who anonymously wrote about the secretive world of private banking for years, told Business Insider UK.

"By 2005-2007, the amount of paperwork increased to around 10 sheets but by today's standards, you need to go through around 100 pages."

Due to the level of secrecy around the Swiss and Luxembourg banking industry, the scrutiny over identification is a lot tougher than it used to be. If you notice, the UBS and HSBC data and subsequent investigations all centre on the pre-credit crisis period and mainly in the early 2000s.

"I believe when HSBC says things are different now, because the industry has massively changed since 20 years ago. The attitude has dramatically changed from that time toward banks and tax accountancy. Banks are scared sick of inadvertently falling foul of regulators."

What does a 'secret' bank account get you?

Unlike regular bank accounts, Swiss ones use numbers and not names. Under law, bankers do not have disclose the existence of an account, who it belongs to, or any other information, without your explicit permission or in very special circumstances.

Effectively, if you are seriously wealthy individual, like music legend David Bowie or fashion designer Diane Von Fürstenberg, you are able to hide the amount you have funnelled away from the authorities. Whether you have £1 or £1 million in your bank account, no one will be given that information without you authorising this first.

This secrecy extends to the banks' own directors.

"People forget that in Switzerland and Luxembourg, where I previously worked, the secrecy laws around banking are so strict that even other units within the same lender would not be privy to the information under the Swiss or Lux unit," says Vaananen.

"Even if you sat on the board of directors at the parent group, unless you sat on the board of directors of the Swiss or Lux unit, you would not have information relating to the activities or clients at that bank. You'd only have overall profit figures and so forth."

While Stephen Green, the CEO of HSBC bank group from 2006 and 2010, has not commented on the Swiss bank account data leak, the UK government is calling for him to give evidence.

Considering he was also chairman of HSBC Private Banking Holdings (Suisse) though, he could face a tough grilling.

What do private bankers do for you?

Private bankers are there to invest your money and seek out the more effective way in reaping in high returns for the wealthy. They don't sort out your tax returns, that's what accountants are for.

"The job of the private wealth banker is, of course, to invest clients money and deliver as favourable returns as possible. Banks did not care whether its client was declaring tax in its home country, that was the responsibility of the client's accountant. The clients tax status was irrelevant outside Switzerland," says Vaananen.

"This is not to say that banks were not aware of clients' tax issues. From the Birkenfield leaked information, there were times when UBS bankers had allegedly smuggled diamonds in toothpaste tubes to avoid the IRS."

Why everyone follows the US regulators' lead

The HSBC scandal has landed on a variety of European government's doorsteps but, usually, they follow the US' lead in investigating and prosecuting firms and individuals.

The tax rules across different countries are horrendously complex. However, the US Bank Secrecy Act of 1970 and the USA Patriot Act actively helps the country to break down the walls in order to penalise serial tax evaders.

"Putting the moral element aside, you have to remember that leaking the private Swiss bank account information in the manner that Herve Falciani did was a criminal act. This can make it difficult, from a legal standpoint, to use in evidence is various jurisdictions," says Vaananen.

"The US has become the stepping stone for for European regulators to launch investigations into several banks. Only the US has the real muscle and success is striking deals with the banks over a variety of financial scandals, especially tax evasion and avoidance."

Belgium is mulling over whether to issue arrest warrants for directors for the Swiss division of the bank. France said it would like to see a coordinated European effort when it launches its investigation into the lender.

In the UK, the latest comment from Britain's taxman shows how domestic regulators sometimes are seen to be 'asleep at the wheel.'

"We received the data under an international treaty agreement with France, which had tight restrictions. We couldn't move it outside the department; we could only use it for tax evasion purposes," said an HMRC spokesperson when the BBC asked about why it did not notify the Financial Conduct Authority of the HSBC investigation.

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NOW WATCH: A 13-Year-Old Made A Revolutionary Invention Out Of Legos And Now Intel Is Investing In His Company

Ukraine peace 'threatened' by rebel actions: Poroshenko

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Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko speaks during a press conference at the EU Headquarters in Brussels on February 12, 2015

Kiev (AFP) - The peace process in Ukraine is being "threatened" by pro-Russian separatists who have virtually encircled Ukrainian troops in the key battleground town of Debaltseve, President Petro Poroshenko said early Sunday, shortly after the start of an agreed ceasefire.

"Unfortunately, the peace process is threatened, the rebels will use Debaltseve to undermine the ceasefire," Poroshenko said during a meeting with the army chief of staff broadcast live on television, after ordering the military to implement the ceasefire from midnight (2200 GMT Saturday).

"As supreme commander of the armed forces, I want peace," Poroshenko added.

A surge in fighting around the strategic railway hub of Debaltseve in the hours before the ceasefire has cast doubt on whether the truce will be respected.

The fragility of the ceasefire was further highlighted when rebels on Saturday warned that they would consider it an act of aggression if surrounded Kiev forces made any attempts to move out of Debaltseve after the ceasefire's start. 

"These attempts will be stopped by us and the enemy will be destroyed," said Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko -- considered by the West to be a Kremlin puppet. 

Kiev in turn accused Zakharchenko of essentially announcing that his forces would not respect the ceasefire. 

"This is just more proof of the undisguised attempts by Russia and the terrorists it controls to scuttle the agreements for a ceasefire and peaceful resolution," Ukraine's national security council said in a statement.

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28 Romantic photos of Michelle and Barack Obama

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obama wedding photoWho can resist romance between the commander-in-chief and the first lady on Valentine's Day?

Married on October 18, 1992, Barack and Michelle Obama have captured our hearts with their love for one another.

Obama mentions his wife in almost every speech he gives, and often seems unable to resist showering his wife with PDA, even when the cameras are rolling.

While President Obama spent the weekend golfing in California, the First Lady sent him a  Valentine's Day message via Twitter.

At the end of his weekly address, President Obama wished his wife a Happy Valentine's Day.

Even though they are across the nation from each other today, we have collected a few of our favorite photos of America's first couple's most romantic moments.

Brett LoGiurato contributed to this report.

Secret Service agents avert their eyes as the Obamas share a private moment on Inauguration Day 2009.



Dancing at the White House during the Governors Ball in February 2009.



Holding hands while heading to Camp David for the first time in March 2009.



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